Regime signal Provisional i
Legacy model output · retained for comparison, not an assessed condition
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Not presented as analyst confidence
Model state probabilities
Recent state sequence (most recent right)
✦ Mission Threads
Command queue
Live operational posture · prioritized for triage
Attention queueranked · alerts · evidence · ownership
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✦ Evidence Loom
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Narratives → claims → observations · every judgment traceable to source
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Intel Cockpit
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Regime dynamics · cascade mechanics · risk contribution · predictive structure · entity context
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Signal dynamics i
Hawkes cascade + volatility
Cascade scaleOperational threshold 0.60
0 · self-limiting0.6 · elevated1.0 · critical>1 · sustaining
Component signals i
v6 engines, each shown against its own ceiling · no composite while inputs are under validation
Mission posture i
Decision anchor · current window
Cross-monitor predictive links i
Granger lead/lag · partial η² effect size · not proof of causality
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Entity constellation i
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What changed pipeline events · axis-specific cards land with backend #116
✦ Reports
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Shift Change Brief
Cross-monitor posture, per-monitor assessments, causal findings, and collection priorities for the incoming shift.
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Single-monitor situation report for the mission currently selected in Mission Thread.
Deep Dive
Long-form investigative report on a specific question. Runs as a background job.
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✦ Collections
Sources & feeds
Live OSINT collection across every active monitor · — feeds
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Six OSINT source familieslive feed health · checking sources…
OSINT / Media
Serper · mainstream + wire reportingOSINT / Global
Event Registry · global structured newsOSINT / GDELT
GDELT · near-real-time eventsOSINT / Telegram
Telegram · regional + adversarial channelsOSINT / Social
X · official + real-time discourseOSINT / Fringe
4chan · fringe early-warning signalMonitor / collectionQuery termsItems collectedLast scanFeed
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✦ Evidence Locker
Archived evidence
Full-text captures preserved in the native language and English — evidence that survives even after the source is moved or removed from the web.
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Select archived evidence to inspect the preserved source
Each capture is stored so the evidence survives even if the original is later moved or scrubbed from the web.
- Native-language text ↔ English translation
- Source, publisher & original URL
- Capture timestamp & preservation status
- Detected language & collected-source tier
✦ Mission Threads
New Mission Thread
Define what you need to understand, align it to intelligence requirements, and see honestly what we can support.
- 1 Define mission
- 2 Align to requirements
- 3 Readiness
- 4 Review & create
Written in your own words. Stored verbatim as the thread's original mission statement — it is never rewritten, so a later edit to the curated intent cannot overwrite what you actually asked for.
Mission mode
What kind of question this thread answers. Two modes describe the environment; three grade it against an intent you author, and those need a desired condition.
This mode grades reality against an authored intent. Without a desired condition there is nothing to grade — that is a missing input, not a capability gap.
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✦ Dashboards · Custom views
Forged Insights — OAI Dashboard
Operational Activity in the Information Environment · Doer → Thing → Audience, live from the knowledge model
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Real: doer · thing · audience · geography · time. Inferred: OAI type (from activity text; capability tags not yet populated). Prototype — verify against primary sources.
Mission thread
Red Sea Shipping Security
BLUF
Iran-backed threat activity around Red Sea shipping is HIGH and escalating.
Observed RESPONSE indicators are moving away from the current KIQ-based OBJECTIVE proxy.
Near-term risk of attacks on merchant shipping in the Southern Red Sea remains elevated. Threat posture, capability indicators, and observed activity all increase the likelihood of further disruptions in the next 7–14 days.
Risk score
78/100
HIGH
Risk trajectory
+63%
Since 30d ago
Corroboration
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Independently confirmed
—loading…265Total items
Claim confidence ≥ 0.55
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Houthi UAV disposition — Northern YemenHIGH
IRGC-QF activity — Port of HodeidahHIGH
Vessel ETA reliability — Southern Red SeaMED
Thread alertslast 14 days
Drone attack on merchant vessel
Struck in Gulf of Aden
Houthi media threatens new operations
Red Sea messaging cycle
IOCC vessel tracked in Bab el-Mandeb
AIS off 4 nm
Coalition naval patrols increase
Near key chokepoints
Commercial vessel reroutes via Cape
Deviation detected
Mission timeline Past 14 days
08:41Drone attack on merchant vessel
Gulf of AdenHigh
Gulf of AdenHigh
08:35Houthi media statement
Threats of new opsMed
Threats of new opsMed
08:28IOCC vessel tracked
Bab el-MandebMed
Bab el-MandebMed
08:12Vessel reroutes via Cape
Deviation detectedLow
Deviation detectedLow
07:45Increased EW activity observed
Southern Red SeaLow
Southern Red SeaLow
Evidence LoomFrom intelligence question to traceable judgment
1KIQ2Vectors3Sources4Claim clusters5Corroboration6Risk & change7BLUF
Live evidence graph
Question
KIQ
What is the risk of Iran-backed attacks on Red Sea shipping in the next 7–14 days?
Analytical vectors
Intent & posture24
Leadership, rhetoric, strategic messaging
Capability & forces32
Arms, training, deployments
Activity & operations48
Observed action, incidents, targeting
Vulnerabilities16
Maritime exposure, chokepoints
Six source families
OSINT / MEDIA32
Mainstream + wire reporting
OSINT / GLOBAL28
Global structured news
OSINT / GDELT40
Near-real-time events
OSINT / TELEGRAM68
Regional + adversarial channels
OSINT / SOCIAL36
Official + real-time discourse
OSINT / FRINGE22
Fringe early-warning signal
Structured claim clusters
Threat intentHIGH
Attributed intent to disrupt shipping
Operational activityHIGH
Launch posture + vessel targeting
Capability & assetsMOD
UAVs, missiles, support network
External supportMOD
IRGC-QF facilitation indicators
VulnerabilitiesHIGH
Chokepoints + merchant exposure
Corroboration state
Corroborated
Mixed
Contradicted
Distribution not yet measured
Risk & change
Risk score
78/100
HIGH
Structural change
+63%
Six-axis shift
Trend
Escalating
High confidence
Assessed judgment
BLUF
Iran-backed threat activity around Red Sea shipping is HIGH and escalating.
Mission Orbit
IRAN SECURITY THREATS
Global monitor
Live signal density
72/100
Elevated
Risk ≥ 7512
Risk 50–747
Potential spillover18
Risk < 5043
Drag to rotate · click a marked thread · enter its mission thread
Iran Security Threats
Risk 95 · Crisis · Southwest Iran
Ack'd by MM · 10:02 UTC
Mission Thread Region
SOUTHWEST IRAN
HIGH PRIORITY
Where this mission's evidence concentrates — key actors, thread paths, and the corroboration mix for the selected area.
Schematic regional evidence map · production binds to resolved PLACE data
OBJECTIVE — KIQ proxy
Key local actors
Thread paths
Regional evidence mix
TheSubplot mission console · live production data